P1 · CHAPTER 06 · EVIDENCE AUDIT
Evidence audit for “The Capability Overhang”
Audit “The Capability Overhang” by separating its opening thesis from the evidence needed to support it. The goal is not agreement; it is a traceable judgment that can change.
WORKBOOK SEQUENCE
- 01
Rewrite this thesis as a claim that could be wrong: There is more latent power in today's models than we have built products to express. The overhang is enormous.
- 02
For each section signal—The Unused Room; The Dynamo Problem; Abilities After Arrival; Scaffolding Changes the Animal; The Printing Press Lesson; Why Imagination Lags; Benchmarks Are Flashlights; The Hidden Surface Area of Work; From Prompting to Operating Systems; Compounding Overhang; The Error of Waiting for Perfect; The Builder's Map; Why This Is Good News; The Overhang Above Us—name the strongest primary source and the strongest counterexample you would seek.
- 03
Record source date, scope, incentives and whether the evidence describes a demo, repeated deployment or measured outcome.
- 04
Write an update rule: what new observation would materially weaken or strengthen the thesis?
EXPECTED OUTPUT
Leave with a decision artifact.
A one-page evidence ledger with claim, supporting source, counterevidence, confidence and next review date.