P1 · CHAPTER 05 · EVIDENCE AUDIT
Evidence audit for “Counting the Adopters”
Audit “Counting the Adopters” by separating its opening thesis from the evidence needed to support it. The goal is not agreement; it is a traceable judgment that can change.
WORKBOOK SEQUENCE
- 01
Rewrite this thesis as a claim that could be wrong: Strip away the headlines and look at the numbers: almost nobody is actually using this well yet.
- 02
For each section signal—The Usage Mirage; A User Is Not an Adopter; The Pilot Graveyard; The Silent Majority; The Old Pattern; Why the Numbers Look Small; The Honest Count; Low Adoption Is the Signal; From Trying to Compounding; The Door Is Still Open—name the strongest primary source and the strongest counterexample you would seek.
- 03
Record source date, scope, incentives and whether the evidence describes a demo, repeated deployment or measured outcome.
- 04
Write an update rule: what new observation would materially weaken or strengthen the thesis?
EXPECTED OUTPUT
Leave with a decision artifact.
A one-page evidence ledger with claim, supporting source, counterevidence, confidence and next review date.