P3 · CHAPTER 18 · EVIDENCE AUDIT
Evidence audit for “Mental Models for the Frontier”
Audit “Mental Models for the Frontier” by separating its opening thesis from the evidence needed to support it. The goal is not agreement; it is a traceable judgment that can change.
WORKBOOK SEQUENCE
- 01
Rewrite this thesis as a claim that could be wrong: You cannot navigate the frontier with maps drawn for the old country. You need new ways of seeing.
- 02
For each section signal—The Failure of Straight Lines; The Long Quiet Before the Loud Part; Optionality Is Not Indecision; The Frontier Is a Search Problem; Fast Updating Without Becoming a Weather Vane; The Shape of Early Advantage; Five Shifts in How to See; What to Keep Fixed; The Courage to Be Early—name the strongest primary source and the strongest counterexample you would seek.
- 03
Record source date, scope, incentives and whether the evidence describes a demo, repeated deployment or measured outcome.
- 04
Write an update rule: what new observation would materially weaken or strengthen the thesis?
EXPECTED OUTPUT
Leave with a decision artifact.
A one-page evidence ledger with claim, supporting source, counterevidence, confidence and next review date.