P2 · CHAPTER 09 · EVIDENCE AUDIT
Evidence audit for “Compounding”
Audit “Compounding” by separating its opening thesis from the evidence needed to support it. The goal is not agreement; it is a traceable judgment that can change.
WORKBOOK SEQUENCE
- 01
Rewrite this thesis as a claim that could be wrong: The people who win the AI era will not be the smartest. They will be the ones who started compounding earliest.
- 02
For each section signal—The Boring Curve; Three Things Compound; The Year You Cannot Buy Back; Consistency Beats Intensity; Practice At The Edge; Assets That Wake Up Later; Distribution Is Memory At Scale; The False Comfort Of Waiting; Designing For Compounding; The Portfolio Of A Person; What Compounding Feels Like; The Calm Advantage; The Best Possible News—name the strongest primary source and the strongest counterexample you would seek.
- 03
Record source date, scope, incentives and whether the evidence describes a demo, repeated deployment or measured outcome.
- 04
Write an update rule: what new observation would materially weaken or strengthen the thesis?
EXPECTED OUTPUT
Leave with a decision artifact.
A one-page evidence ledger with claim, supporting source, counterevidence, confidence and next review date.