P1 · CHAPTER 03 · EVIDENCE AUDIT
Evidence audit for “What Early Looked Like Before”
Audit “What Early Looked Like Before” by separating its opening thesis from the evidence needed to support it. The goal is not agreement; it is a traceable judgment that can change.
WORKBOOK SEQUENCE
- 01
Rewrite this thesis as a claim that could be wrong: Electricity took forty years to change the factory. The lessons of that lag are written all over the present.
- 02
For each section signal—The Dynamo Arrives Early; The Factory Before Electricity; Why the Obvious Was Not Obvious; The Productivity Paradox; General-Purpose Technologies Do Not Arrive Alone; Steam, Rail, and the Shape of Rewiring; The Cost of Keeping the Old Layout; AI and the Temptation of the Central Motor; The Thirty-Year Misreading; What the Analogy Predicts; Living in the Lag; The Best Possible News—name the strongest primary source and the strongest counterexample you would seek.
- 03
Record source date, scope, incentives and whether the evidence describes a demo, repeated deployment or measured outcome.
- 04
Write an update rule: what new observation would materially weaken or strengthen the thesis?
EXPECTED OUTPUT
Leave with a decision artifact.
A one-page evidence ledger with claim, supporting source, counterevidence, confidence and next review date.