P1 · CHAPTER 01 · EVIDENCE AUDIT
Evidence audit for “The Curve We're On”
Audit “The Curve We're On” by separating its opening thesis from the evidence needed to support it. The goal is not agreement; it is a traceable judgment that can change.
WORKBOOK SEQUENCE
- 01
Rewrite this thesis as a claim that could be wrong: Every transformative technology follows an S-curve. The only question that matters is where on it we are standing right now.
- 02
For each section signal—The Shape Beneath The Noise; Why The Middle Feels Like The Start; Where Language Models Actually Are; The Capability Curve And The Deployment Curve; The Insider's Mistake; Chaos Is Not Maturity; The First Uses Are Not The Final Uses; The Price Of Being Early; The Work Of Locating Yourself; The Beginning After The Beginning—name the strongest primary source and the strongest counterexample you would seek.
- 03
Record source date, scope, incentives and whether the evidence describes a demo, repeated deployment or measured outcome.
- 04
Write an update rule: what new observation would materially weaken or strengthen the thesis?
EXPECTED OUTPUT
Leave with a decision artifact.
A one-page evidence ledger with claim, supporting source, counterevidence, confidence and next review date.